Being a part of comics twitter is amazing. Each and everyday some new “news” pops up which sends the entire fandom into a tailspin. The latest news on the market is regarding Spider-Man. It is being said that Disney is planning on buying the character rights from Sony for $4 billion. Is there even a kernel of truth to these rumours? Let’s analyze.
What Is The New Rumour About Disney Buying Back Spider-Man?
The emergence of these kind of widespread rumours (for now) was expected. Especially after Disney and Sony, against all odds, reached a new deal. This new deal allowed Spider-Man to remain in the MCU for two more movies. After that, no one knows what is there in Spidey’s future. But no fandom can live in uncertainty. So the latest rumours of Disney rescuing Spider-Man from Sony was going to surface sooner or later.
The numbers being quoted in this still-rumoured deal are staggering. Disney is reportedly intending to offer somewhere between $4 to $5 billion. If this is true then the amount will be even bigger than what Disney paid for Star Wars. Of course big deals come with even bigger plans and here Disney plans on making Spider-Man the leader of the Avengers. This is because we are assuming they have to justify the 4-5 billion dollars they will be shelling out for him.
Will Disney Shell Out The $4 Billion For Spider-Man?
The main question here is- will Disney really shell out $4-$5 billion for Spidey? Sorry to disappoint fans the answer is a no and will likely remain so.
Disney has made quite a few high profile purchases over the years. Examples include Marvel for 4.24 billion, and more recently Fox for a huge $72.3 billion. But this isn’t comparable to the Spidey takeover. In case of the above two companies there was a lot of revenue options for Disney. This ranged from multiple merchandising outlets, promotional contracts, media outlets and more. But in the case of Spider-Man it would simply be one revenue road for Disney. The revenue streams here would be network deals, promotional agreements, digital and home releases. This simply doesn’t justify the $4 billion.
Of course you might say that Spider-Man: Far From Home made around 1.2 billion. So the cost will be recovered within at the most 3 or 4 more Spider-Man movies (assuming that they perform like Far From Home). But there are more costs which have to be subtracted from that amount. This includes production costs, theatre costs, promotional costs and more. At the end, what Disney will be able to pocket will be roughly one third of that billion.
The Launch Of Disney+
There is something else to consider as well and that is the launch of the Disney+ streaming service. While it surely will be a great hit, but in the short term Disney will lose more than it will make. This is due to the production costs associated with the different original content in there. To back up this speculation more is the fact that Disney has moved its staff incentive schemes away from profits and geared it towards subscriber numbers. This means that Disney is even more unlikely to shell out $4 billion dollars.
But this doesn’t mean that one day Spider-Man rights won’t revert back to Marvel. It is generally believed that Sony will eventually sell their TV and film rights for the same reasons for which 20th century Fox did. This is due to not being able to compete in the modern market. While Disney probably won’t end up being the buyer, but it is assumed that there is a clause which acts as a failsafe. The clause states that if and when Sony Pictures is sold, then the Spider-Man rights will revert back to Marvel. So, waiting it out will certainly be less cheaper than paying $4 billion right now the two movies will take at least 2 to 4 years to produce and then release.
If you want to know more about the rumour of Disney buying Spider-Man back from Sony, then click on the video below: